Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Ghana's economy still middle-income …despite new population figures

Ghana's economy has maintained its middle-income status despite a new population estimate that puts per capita GDP for 2010 around US$1,295, against a previous projection of US$1,318.36.

Ghana achieved middle-income status following the rebasing of the national accounts in November last year - but sceptics cautioned that any significant upward revision of population figures could push the per capita figure below the middle-income threshold of US$1,000.

With nominal GDP expected to grow by more than 21% this year, per capita GDP could surpass US$1,500 this year, albeit currency depreciation will pose a downside risk to the projection.

Ghana’s total population is now pegged at 24,223,431, showing an increase of 28 percent over the figure at the last census, provisional results of the 2010 Population and Housing Census have revealed.

The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), official state agency responsible for the national census, put the total number of females in the country at 12,421,770, representing 51.3 percent, while males make up 11, 801,661, representing 48.7 percent.

The last population census held in 2000 recorded a population of 18,912,079. An approximate 35 million population is expected by 2025.

The Northern region recorded the highest population growth rate since the last count, increasing by 35.6 percent while the Greater Accra, Central and Ashanti regions recorded increases of 34.6, 32.2 and 30.8 percent, respectively.

Annual growth rates in the Central, Greater Accra, Ashanti and Northern Regions were significantly above the national figure of 2.4 percent. The least annual growth rate of 1.1percent was recorded in the Upper East region.

Mr. Kofi Agyeman-Duah, a member of the 2010 Census Coordinating Team, told B&FT in Accra that the new census database is crucial in determining the development policy direction of the country as well as the redistribution of the national wealth.
“It is also an important source of comprehensive data on persons with disabilities, helping to assess their social and living conditions in terms of school attendance and educational attainment, employment, marital status and living arrangements,” he said.

Historical census developments

Ghana's first post-independence population census in 1960 counted about 6.7 million inhabitants. In 1970 the national census registered 8.5 million people - a 27 percent increase - while an official census in 1984 recorded a figure of 12.3 million - almost double the 1960 figure.

The nation's population was estimated to have increased to about 15 million in 1990, and to an estimated 17.2 million in mid-994. With an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent for the period between 1965 and 1980, a 3.4 percent growth rate for 1981 through 1989 and a 1992 growth rate of 3.2 percent, the country's population was projected to surpass 20 million by the year 2000.

The increasing population was reflected in other statistics as well. Between 1965 and 1989, a constant 45 percent of the nation's total female population was of childbearing age: the crude birth rate of 47 per 1,000 recorded for 1965 dropped to 44 per 1,000 of population in 1992.

Also, the crude death rate of 18 per 1,000 of population in 1965 fell to 13 per 1,000 in 1992, while life-expectancy rose from a 1970-1975 average of 42 years for men and 45 years for women to 52 and 56 years, respectively, in 1992.

The 1965 infant mortality rate of 120 per 1,000 live births also improved to 86 per 1,000 live births in 1992. With the fertility rate averaging about 7 children per adult female and expected to fall to only five children per adult female by the year 2000, the population projection of 35 million in 2025 looks credible.

A number of factors, including improved vaccination against common diseases and nutritional education through village and community health-care systems, contributed to the expanding population. The rise in the nation's population has generated a corresponding rise in the demand for schools, health facilities, and urban housing.

A gender ratio of 97.3 males to 100 females was recorded in the 1984. This was slightly below the 1970 ratio of 98 males to 100 females, but a reversal of the 1960 ratio of 102.2 males to 100 females. The fall in the proportion of males to females can be partly attributed to the fact that more men have left the country in pursuit of jobs.

Also significant in the 1984 census figures was the national age distribution. About 58 percent of Ghana's population in 1984 was either under the age of 20 or above 65.

Approximately 7 million people were represented in this category, about 4 million of them under the age of 10 and therefore economically unproductive. The large population of young, economically unproductive individuals grew rapidly through the early 1990s, with about half of the country's population under age 15.

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